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Risk Assessment Steeplechase: Hurdles to Becoming a Target Market

Author: Janet K. Tandy and Leon Shilton

Start Page: 127
End Page: 150
Volume: 17
Issue Number: 2
Year: 1999
Publication: Journal of Real Estate Research

Abstract: Framed in a quadrant model, the data sources that analysts use to predict the performance of core property types for the major metropolitan areas in the United States are reviewed. The hypothesis is that forecasters rely on information from the economic base, the property inventory and financial performance quadrants to generate forecasts. For each core property type, analysts are rather homogeneous in grouping metropolitan areas from best to worst. However, the property type determines what sets of economic, social, inventory and market information are used. The only consistent forecast factor used across all property types appears to be economic growth.

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