|Risk Assessment Steeplechase: Hurdles to
Becoming a Target Market
Author: Janet K. Tandy and Leon Shilton
Start Page: 127
Abstract: Framed in a quadrant
model, the data sources that analysts use to predict the performance of core property
types for the major metropolitan areas in the United States are reviewed. The hypothesis
is that forecasters rely on information from the economic base, the property inventory and
financial performance quadrants to generate forecasts. For each core property type,
analysts are rather homogeneous in grouping metropolitan areas from best to worst.
However, the property type determines what sets of economic, social, inventory and market
information are used. The only consistent forecast factor used across all property
types appears to be economic growth.