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Rent Adjustments and Forecasts in the Industrial Market

Author: Bob Thompson and Sotiris Tsolacos

Start Page: 151
End Page: 168
Volume: 17
Issue Number: 2
Year: 1999
Publication: Journal of Real Estate Research

Abstract: This study estimates models of industrial rents at the national level in Great Britain. James Lan Wooten and CB Hillier Parker rent indices are used to model changes in real rents. These changes are positively related to changes in real GDP and inversely affected by absorption, as measured by King Sturge & Co. Additionally, changes in rents convey information not captured by GDP and absorption. The lagged effects of the variables differ for each index, attributable to the construction methodologies followed. Dynamic forecasts for both models show a small overprediction in 1996 and 1997. Ex ante forecasts suggest that both will show positive real growth throughout 1998 and 1999.

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