Graduated driver licensing programs reduce, by an
average of 11 percent, the incidence of fatal crashes of
16-year-old drivers, according to a study by researchers
from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health's
Center for Injury Research and Policy and the Johns
Hopkins School of Medicine. When examining the statistics
for the 19 states with the most comprehensive programs
— determined by their including at least five of the
seven components listed below — the researchers found
an about 20 percent reduction in fatal crashes involving
16-year-old drivers.
The report was supported primarily by the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration and in part by the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"Graduated driver licensing programs are a popular way
to reduce the risk of vehicle crashes for novice drivers,"
said Susan P. Baker, lead author of the study and a
professor in the Bloomberg School's
Department of Health Policy and Management and Center
for Injury Research and Policy. "We already knew that the
programs reduced crash rates of young drivers, but we
didn't know which programs were most effective in reducing
risk. After completing our study, it is clear that
more-comprehensive programs have the greatest effect."
Nicole Nason, NHTSA administrator, said, "This study
strongly underscores the effectiveness of graduated
licensing laws. To states searching for solutions to the
tragic problem of fatal crashes involving teenagers, it
provides extremely valuable new information."
Graduated driver licensing programs differ in each
state. The Johns Hopkins researchers based their analyses
on the presence of the following components, chosen because
they are commonly found in existing programs:
Minimum age of 15-1/2 for
obtaining a learner permit
Waiting period after obtaining a
learner permit of at least three months before applying for
an intermediate license
Minimum of 30 hours of supervised
driving
Minimum age of at least 16 for
obtaining an intermediate license
Minimum age of at least 17 for
full licensing
Nighttime driving restriction
Restriction on carrying
passengers
The researchers used data from 1994 to 2004 collected
by NHTSA's Fatality Analysis Reporting System and the U.S.
Census Bureau to examine various graduated driver licensing
programs and fatal crash statistics in 36 states with
graduated driver licensing programs and seven without.
Comparing states without graduated driver licensing
programs to states with five program components, the
researchers reported an 18 percent reduction in fatal
crashes involving 16-year-old drivers. Programs with six or
seven components were associated with a 21 percent
reduction. The researchers also found a 16 percent to 21
percent reduction in fatal crashes when programs included
an age requirement in addition to a wait of at least three
months before allowing teens to apply for their
intermediate license plus nighttime driving restrictions
and either 30 hours of supervised driving or passenger
restrictions. The authors concluded that the most
comprehensive graduated driver licensing programs result in
the best reduction of fatal crashes of 16-year-old
drivers.
In addition, the authors' findings were strengthened
by examining fatal crashes involving drivers aged 20 to 24
and 25 to 29. The researchers did not find a reduction in
fatal crashes in these age groups. Graduated driver
licensing restrictions primarily affect 16-year-olds,
indicating that the changes were not associated with the
overall driving environment that would also have influenced
older drivers, explained co-author Li-Hui Chen.
Guohua Li, also a co-author of the study, said,
"Annually, about 1,000 16-year-old drivers are involved in
fatal crashes in the United States, and traffic injury is
the leading cause of death among adolescents. The
effectiveness of graduated driver licensing programs in
reducing fatal crashes of novice drivers is very robust
across genders and geographic regions. Enhancing the
enforcement of graduated driver licensing regulations could
prevent more premature deaths."
The study, which will be published in the July issue
of Pediatrics, was supported by grants from the
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the Johns
Hopkins Center for Injury Research and Policy and the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
GO TO