In 1950, Baltimore was the sixth largest city in
America, with a population approaching 1 million. Today,
Baltimore is the nation's 18th largest, with a population
just over 600,000. The good news for residents and city
officials is that the city's decades-long population
decline has recently abated; the bad news is that the
physical scars of this exodus — boarded-up homes,
shuttered commercial buildings and junk-strewn vacant lots
— still pockmark the city.
Five years ago, Mayor Martin O'Malley, in an effort to
accelerate the healing process, launched Project 5000 with
the explicit goal of reclaiming title to a portion of the
city's stock of abandoned properties and putting them back
into productive use. However, as often is the case with
public policy challenges, there is a disproportion between
the scale of the problem and the resources available to
combat it.
From the start, city officials have faced questions
about where to focus their efforts to get the greatest
return on a limited investment. Should they concentrate on
neighborhoods with relatively few abandoned units, in hopes
of shoring up seemingly more stable neighborhoods? Or
should they instead focus on the most blighted
neighborhoods with the highest concentration of
abandonment, where entire blocks might be acquired and put
to better use? What other neighborhood characteristics
— parks, school quality, homeownership rates —
are important correlates of a neighborhood's health?
This fall, in an effort to assist Project 5000,
first-year master of public policy students undertook the
first systematic neighborhood-level study of Baltimore's
abandoned properties and neighborhood health. The project
was undertaken as part of the course Policy Analysis in the
Real World, taught by Sandee Newman.
"The primary purpose is to give our graduate students
real-world exposure to the challenges of analyzing a
complex policy issue with limited data, statistical
sophistication and time," said Newman, professor and
director of the Johns Hopkins Institute for Policy
Studies. "At the same time, this study provides city
officials with a much more complete and detailed picture of
this tenacious problem."
Over a 12-week period, teams of students analyzed
several decades' worth of census and city administrative
data, and conducted interviews and street-by-street
observations in five Baltimore neighborhoods in an effort
to understand whether there was a consistent link between
levels of abandonment, the neighborhoods' underlying health
and the specific features of the abandoned properties.
The neighborhoods studied were selected for their
geographic distribution and demographic diversity and
because each encompasses areas of both concentrated and
dispersed abandonment. Often, the patterns occurred in
close proximity; in one case, the width of a city street
was all that separated areas of high and low levels of
abandonment. Unlike previous analyses that aggregated
results at the neighborhood or census tract level, this
study examined abandonment within small, two-to-three-block
"micro" neighborhoods.
The students examined the relationship between
abandonment and an array of indicators of neighborhood
health, such as property values, homeownership rates,
crime, private investment and the presence of amenities
such as parks and stores. Their preliminary findings,
reported in December to an audience that included members
of the Baltimore City Council, city housing and planning
officials, community organizations and concerned citizens,
offered some surprising insights. Most notably, no
consistent link was found between higher levels of
abandonment and other neighborhood health measures, such as
housing prices and trends. Rather, the relationship
appeared to be heavily tempered by other considerations,
including the style and age of the local housing stock. The
students concluded that the number or concentration of
abandoned properties in a neighborhood is a poor targeting
criterion for Project 5000 resources.
David McIlvane, a real estate agent involved with
Project 5000 who attended the presentation, said he was
surprised that the housing stock and age were such strong
correlates of abandonment. "The data presented were very
compelling," he said.
Another key finding was the discovery of "hot spots"
— small areas of higher levels of abandonment,
increased crime and depressed property values —
within two apparently stable neighborhoods. The students
suggested that these hot spots may be good targets for
Project 5000 remediation, since they are already surrounded
by healthier areas. The students also found evidence that
dead-end streets, impassable lots and other features seem
to serve as buffers, preventing the spread of crime and
other problems.
Newman said that the richness, range and detail of the
database developed for this analysis provides a more
nuanced picture of the relationship of abandonment to
neighborhood health. For example, in two apparently stable
neighborhoods, the students discovered troublesome "hot
spots" of high levels of abandonment, increased crime and
depressed property values. Conversely, at least one
apparently struggling neighborhood contained a
several-block-long "enclave" of well-maintained homes with
relatively high property values and homeownership rates.
"The students walked every block of the neighborhoods
they studied," Newman said. "They were able to capture
features of the problem that were hidden at the
neighborhood or census tract level."
Student presenter Wesley Tharpe, a member of the
Coldstream-Homestead-Montebello study team, noted that he
was struck by the discrepancies between residents'
perceptions of the cause or impact of abandoned properties
in their neighborhood and what the data said. For example,
many residents attributed the deteriorating housing to an
increase in younger, more transient residents, but this was
not supported by the objective census and administrative
data. "One of the most important lessons for me was
learning how to square what we saw and heard with what the
numbers were telling us," he said. "In our analysis, we
tried to tell a coherent story that wove together all of
the different information we analyzed."
Michael Bainum, assistant commissioner for land
resources in the city's Department of Housing and Community
Development, echoed the comments of many in the audience
when he praised the students for their thoughtful analysis
and new ideas, calling the presentation a "breath of fresh
air." He added that he "hopes that this experience gives
the students a sense of the frustration, and also the
adrenaline rush," that public officials experience in
trying to solve pressing policy issues.
Student Ami Patel said she chose Johns Hopkins in part
because it was the only program that offered first-year
students the opportunity to do meaningful policy research.
"After the presentation, City Councilwoman Mary Pat Clarke
spoke to me and some of my classmates and told us that the
presentation really helped her to understand what was
happening in parts of her district," Patel said. "Knowing
that our work was actually being listened to by
policy-makers — to me, that was the most rewarding
part."