Illustration by Naomi Shea
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Will the world be a better place for human health in
five years? Ten? Twenty-five? Experts from Johns Hopkins'
Bloomberg School of Public
Health weigh in with their own informed predictions.
From the book Saving Lives, Millions at a Time,
produced to celebrate the rededication of the Bloomberg
School last spring.

Vaccinate, Eradicate
By 2008, the Guinea worm, which as recently as two decades
ago infected millions of Africans annually with ulcers,
fever, and sometimes crippling infections, will be
eradicated. By 2009, polio will be certified as eradicated.
And by 2010, an AIDS vaccine will be deployed globally.
—Donald S. Burke, professor of
international health
Prescriptive Profiles
Within the next 25 years, a person's whole genome sequence
will be routinely considered as part of his or her health
profile, just as age, cholesterol level, and blood pressure
are now. Individuals will be able to use their genomic
profiles to guide their personal behavior, while health
care providers will consider them when prescribing
treatment.
—M. Daniele Fallin, assistant professor of
epidemiology
Information Overload
In the next few years, the constant harangue of
infomercials, "expert" talking heads on "news" channels,
and other self-serving sources of "information" will create
a spate of bad decisions by the public about health risks.
But within the quarter-century, renewed respect for
objective science means we will see balanced and safe diets
that control the obesity epidemic; basic health care for
all; and investments in safe food, clean air, and potable
water.
—Scott L. Zeger, professor of
biostatistics
Cleaner Water
The proportion of the world's population that has daily
access to clean water will increase, largely due to new,
simple, rugged field technologies. These technologies will
include reusable micro-filters and solar-powered systems
that purify water with ultraviolet light.
—Robert S. Lawrence, professor of
environmental health sciences
Dirtier Air
In the developed world, we will continue to reduce urban
air pollution by closing heavy industry — but that
industry will continue to move to, and pollute, the
developing world. Emerging "mega-cities" pose unprecedented
air pollution problems. My worst fears are for the global
atmosphere; we are doing far too little to rein in
emissions of greenhouse gases. Without immediate global
action, which seems far too unlikely, concentrations of
these gases will still be increasing in 2025.
—Jonathan M. Samet, professor of
epidemiology
Fear Not
Because the needless fear of negligible risks can interfere
with enjoyment of life — while lack of fear of true
dangers can lead to tragedy — fear management will be
recognized as a significant public health issue. With
enhanced risk assessment, risk communication, and
pharmaceuticals, the beginnings of such management will be
accomplished.
—Stephen P. Teret, professor of
health
policy and management
Peer Pressure
Instead of chiefly targeting individuals to influence
behavior, science will move to understanding how
organizations, neighborhoods, laws, and social norms can be
changed in ways that improve public health.
—Thomas A. Glass, associate professor of
epidemiology
Weighty Issues
By the year 2025, the biodiversity of indigenous foods in
the world will plummet by one-third. New classes of
"essential nutrients" will be discovered. China's rising
economic might will drive up world demand for grain,
pushing prices higher and setting off a crisis in food aid
for the poorest countries. And America will start losing
weight while today's developing economic "tigers" will be
putting on pounds: In sum, the world will be no
lighter.
—Keith P. West Jr., professor of
international health
Crowd Control
By 2050, the global population will increase by almost 3
billion. In nearly all societies in the world, fertility
rates will be at replacement levels — 2.1 births per
reproductive-aged woman — and average longevity will
increase by 10 years.
—Amy O. Tsui, professor of
population and family health services
Health and Happiness
In 25 years, screening for depression will be as common as
taking blood pressure. As a result, treatment in the
primary care setting will increase — and, because
depression increases the risk of heart disease, diabetes,
and stroke, the incidence of those diseases can be expected
to decline.
—William W. Eaton, professor of
mental
health
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of Contents
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