Volcanoes/aerosol: When the analysis includes both the El Chichón and
Pinatubo eruption periods (i.e. starting in 1979), you should not use a single aerosol
proxy. El Chichón erupted during a period of relatively low chlorine content,
while Pinatubo erupted during a time of significantly higher chlorine content.
Tie and Brasseur [1996] showed that the impact of an eruption is sensitive to the
chlorine content. The initial reaction is N2O5 + H2O
→2HNO3 on the surfaces of the sulfate particles from the
eruption. The result is a reduction in NOx that leads to an increase in ozone.
An important secondary effect is that the reduction in NOx leads to a decrease in
the conversion of ClOx to chlorine nitrate, ClONO2, thus
increasing the effectiveness
of chlorine catalytic loss. Pinatubo erupted when chlorine content was high and the
chlorine effect dominates the NOx effect leading to a clear decrease in ozone.
Tie and Brasseur [1996] estimated that El Chichón erupted when the chlorine content
was such that the two effects nearly cancelled and there should be little net effect
on ozone. Thus, statistical fitting should have independent terms for these two
volcanoes. Using only one term will probably lead to getting half of the correct
answer for Pinatubo and a false answer for El Chichón.