JHU Study Shows Detailed Picture of High School Dropout
Crisis
By Mary Maushard
CSOS
Dropping out of high school is predictable and
preventable, especially in large city public schools that
produce many of the nation's dropouts, according to a new
study by education researchers at Johns Hopkins'
Center for Social
Organization of Schools.
In "Unfulfilled Promise: The Dimensions and
Characteristics of Philadelphia's Dropout Crisis, 2000-05,"
Ruth Curran Neild and Robert Balfanz draw on extensive data
from Philadelphia schools and social service agencies not
only to establish the problem but also to provide insight
on how cities across the country can solve their dropout
problem.
"This report can help big city school districts gain a
deeper understanding of the dimensions and characteristics
of the dropout crisis," said Balfanz, a research scientist
and co-director of
Talent
Development High Schools at Johns Hopkins. "It provides
a road map on how to find and establish the best prevention
and intervention strategies to keep all students on the
graduation track."
The research report, released Oct. 19 by the
Philadelphia Youth Network, has significant implications
for how cities can effectively use their resources to
encourage more students to stay in school. According to
Neild and Balfanz:
 Most future dropouts can be
identified before or early in the first year of high
school. For example, eighth-graders who miss five weeks of
school or fail math or English have at least a 75 percent
chance of dropping out of high school. And in the
Philadelphia district, as with most districts with a
dropout challenge, many future dropouts attend a subset of
high schools that often are overwhelmed by the sheer number
of students in need of intensive intervention.
Most dropouts leave school because
they are not attending regularly and are failing courses, a
finding that counters the common interpretation of the
landmark Silent Epidemic report that suggested that most
students drop out because they are bored and not
challenged.
Most dropouts are not involved
with social service agencies, but those who are have
extremely high dropout rates. For high school students who
have been abused and neglected, are in foster care or
receive an out-of-home placement in the juvenile justice
system, the probability of dropping out is 75 percent or
higher. Likewise, the researchers found that having a child
before or during high school dramatically increased the
chances that female students would drop out. This finding
comes from the first analysis of individual school and
social service records and suggests that current social
service/juvenile justice supports are not strong enough to
enable adolescents in their charge to graduate.
The report provides a comprehensive policy agenda and
sets goals and timetables for which leaders across public
agencies will be held accountable. The plan calls for
developing a system of high-quality options, effective
interventions and quality supports to help young people
earn their diplomas; targeting attention and support for
foster care youth, pregnant and parenting teens, and youth
offenders; and building a comprehensive strategy across
city agencies to support students and schools.
In addition, the report makes specific recommendations
for ways in which business leaders, elected officials,
parents and educators can take an active part in the
solution.
In light of the report, the Philadelphia School
District on Oct. 19 launched Project U-Turn, a citywide
effort to focus attention on the city's dropout crisis and
to implement strategies and investment to resolve it.
The study is available on the Web at
www.csos.jhu.edu/new/Neild_Balfanz_06.pdf.
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2006
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