As many as 3.2 million Burmese are estimated to be
affected by the devastation caused by
Cyclone Nargis, according to geographic risk models
developed by researchers at the Johns Hopkins
Bloomberg School of Public Health and Lehman College,
CUNY.
Using Geographic Information Systems, the researchers
calculated the likely distribution of
the population of Burma (also known as Myanmar) and
developed maps of the regions at greatest risk
from the storm's effects. The maps and a list of the
affected communities are available at
www.jhsph.edu/burmacyclone.
"We estimate that 20 percent of the population in the
four affected administrative divisions
could be affected by Cyclone Nargis," said Shannon Doocy,
assistant professor with the Center for
Refugee and Disaster Response, who developed the
vulnerability estimates with colleagues from the
Bloomberg School's Center for Public Health and Human
Rights and from Lehman College. "These are
rough estimates, but our calculations could be of great
help to relief agencies that are trying to
provide aid on the ground."
According to the calculations, the Ayeyarwady region
was hardest hit, with 1.8 million people
affected; another 1.1 million were potentially affected in
the Yangon administrative division. At least
100,000 people in both the Bago East and Mon divisions were
also affected. The United Nations
estimates that as many as 220,000 are missing following the
cyclone and that 63,000 to 101,000
people were killed.
Major health threats for cyclone survivors include
waterborne diseases such as typhoid, which
has already been reported in some areas, and potential
outbreaks of dysentery from cholera and E.
coli. Measles outbreaks, which are common in settings of
mass displacement, are a concern for
children and a possible threat. Mosquito-borne diseases,
particularly malaria and dengue fever, are
prevalent in Burma and are also significant health
risks.
Chris Beyrer, director of the Center for Public Health
and Human Rights, said, "Right now, the
risk of disease outbreaks in Burma is especially high
— much more so than we've typically seen with
tropical cyclones in past decades — because the
humanitarian assistance so far has been delayed and
woefully inadequate in scale. The military regime continues
to rebuff offers of assistance from the
international community more than a week after the storm,
and they continue to restrict visas, limit
international observers and insist upon relying solely on
its own response, which by all accounts, is
markedly inadequate," he said.
Beyrer added that international guidelines on human
rights and natural disasters cite the right
of all affected populations to evacuation and other
lifesaving measures, protection against negative
impacts of natural hazards and access to adequate food,
water, shelter, sanitation and health services.
In addition to estimating the population
vulnerability, the Bloomberg School is working with its
partners based in the region to provide assistance to the
Burmese people. Relief teams of 85 people
each are working in Rangoon, Burma's largest city, and in
the country's delta region. These teams,
which are trained in rapid assessment and response by Johns
Hopkins personnel, are assisting with
water purification and the distribution of food, clothing,
medicines and other essentials.
The researchers were supported by a grant from the
Human and Social Dynamics Program at
the National Science Foundation.